An evaluation of CMIP6 historical simulations of the cold season teleconnection between tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures and precipitation in Southwest Asia, the coastal Middle East, and Northern Pakistan and India

Abstract The ability of six CMIP6 models to reproduce the observed cold season teleconnection between tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and precipitation in Southwest Asia, coastal Middle East (CME), Northern Pakistan India (NPI) is examined. 1979-2014 period analyzed, maximize observations over both ocean regions. Nine historical simulations for same are examined each model, account internal variability coupled system. terms SSTs, precipitation, 200 hPa geopotential heights, derived quantities. All capture some broadest features teleconnections, but there a wide range magnitude details. differences appear related models’ details variability, including position strength anomalies Indo-west Pacific, as well accurately propagate tropically-forced response into region. teleconnections CME NPI regions on eastern western margins, respectively, strongest signal very similar structure have results, except that even more limited, consistent with their marginal locations known influence other modes variability. For all three areas, model leading suggests caution interpreting climate regional projections.